Non-linear feedback processes and a latitudinal gradient in the climatic effects determine green spruce aphid outbreaks in the UK

摘要: The role of climatic fluctuations in determining the dynamics insect populations has been a classical problem population ecology. Here, we use long-term annual data on green spruce aphid at nine localities UK for importance endogenous processes, local weather and large-scale factors. We rely diagnostic modelling tools from dynamic theory to analyse these determine North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as exogenous factors influencing dynamics. Our suggests that key elements are strong non-linear feedback structure, high potential growth effects winter spring weather. results indicate main effect NAO is operating through temperatures maximum per capita rate (R m ). In particular, can predict quite accurately occurrence an outbreak by using simple logistic model with perturbation effect. However, predictions different variables showed clear geographical signature. temperature were best predicting observed toward southern localities, while was much better predictor northern localities. Although species characterized complex life-cycles, emphasize value general models their