Large‐scale climatic variability affects the dynamics of tropical skipjack tuna in the Western Pacific Ocean

摘要: The role of climate variability in determining the fluctuations fish populations had been a traditional problem ecology. In this paper, we studied Southern Oscillation Index (SO) and Pacific Decadal (PDO) on population dynamics western stock skipjack tuna Katsuwonus pelamis. Our analysis was based three sequential steeps: diagnostic approach to deduce what kind dynamic model should be more appropriate, modelling capture per unit effort data through logistic model, use theory for analyzing effect exogenous perturbations. We find that direct one-year lagged negative PDO effects SO were needed explain annual fluctuations. Models including combined these climatic indexes 80% variance addition, models provided very accurate predictions independent observed dynamics. This result is encouraging because inherent CPUE not well determined link between ecological processes. Finally, study demonstrates simple can offer reasonable explanations fluctuations, they are sound theoretical framework.