Better sure than safe? Over-confidence in judgement based software development effort prediction intervals
作者： Magne Jørgensen , Karl Halvor Teigen , Kjetil Moløkken
DOI: 10.1016/S0164-1212(02)00160-7
关键词: Reliability engineering 、 Engineering 、 Prediction interval 、 Process (engineering) 、 Software development 、 Estimation 、 Confidence interval 、 Judgement 、 Software 、 Project manager 、 Risk analysis (engineering)
摘要: The uncertainty of a software development effort estimate can be indicated through prediction interval (PI), i.e., the estimated minimum and maximum corresponding to specific confidence level. For example, project manager may ''90% confident'' or believe that is it ''very likely'' required complete will between 8000 12,000 work-hours. This paper describes results from four studies (Studies A-D) on human judgement (expert) based PIs effort. Study A examines accuracy in real projects. suggest were generally much too narrow reflect chosen level confidence, there was strong over-confidence. Studies B-D try understand reasons for observed B possibility over-confidence related type experience estimation process. C concept difficult interpret estimators. Finally, D are unfortunate feedback mechanisms reward
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