Assessing the dynamic material criticality of infrastructure transitions: A case of low carbon electricity

摘要: Decarbonisation of existing infrastructure systems requires a dynamic roll-out technology at an unprecedented scale. The potential disruption in supply critical materials could endanger such transition to low-carbon and, by extension, compromise energy security more broadly because low carbon technologies are reliant on these way that fossil-fuelled is not. Criticality currently defined as the combination for and exposure system interest disruption. We build this definition develop approach quantifying criticality, which monitors change criticality during towards goal. This allows us assess relative risk different pathways reach particular goal reduce probability being ‘locked in’ attractive but potentially future-critical technologies. To demonstrate, we apply our method proposed UK electricity transition, with focus neodymium. anticipate neodymium will decrease almost 30% 2050; however, results show production increases ninefold over period, result increasing neodymium-reliant