Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach

摘要: This paper establishes robust dynamic features of the worker reallocation process in US labor market. I use structural VARs with sign restrictions, which take form restricting short-run negative relationship between vacancies and unemployment (i.e., Beveridge curve). Despite ‘weakness’ these they reveal a clear, unambiguous pattern that, when increases drop, (i) both separation rate gross separations rise quickly remain persistently high, (ii) job finding drop hump-shaped manner, (iii) hires respond little initially, but eventually rise. These results point to importance loss understanding market dynamics. also holds respect different kinds shocks that induce same curve relationship. considers ‘disaggregate model’, uses data disaggregated into six demographic groups incorporates transitions out force. show continues play dominant role among prime-age male workers, while, for other groups, changes are more important. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.