From long-term targets to cumulative emission pathways: Reframing UK climate policy

摘要: Abstract In March 2007, the EU reaffirmed its commitment to making fair contribution global mean surface temperatures not exceeding 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. line with this, UK Government has laid legal foundations for an emissions cut of 60% by 2050. Whilst 2050 reductions dominate target-setting agenda, long-term targets do have a scientific basis and are leading dangerously misguided policies. If policy is be scientifically credible, it must informed understanding cumulative associated pathways. This analysis current climate illustrates how following “correlation trail” from temperature thresholds national pathways fundamentally reframes UK's targets. Considering emissions, carbon cycle feedbacks omission international transport dramatically increases both scale immediacy which need reduced; example, within UK, 6–9% p.a. beginning as early 2012. The implications this stark; society can no longer await decadal timeframes necessary transition low-carbon energy supply. threshold maintain any meaningful currency, industrialised nations little option but radically urgently curtail their demand energy.