Spatially Explicit Modeling of Schistosomiasis Risk in Eastern China Based on a Synthesis of Epidemiological, Environmental and Intermediate Host Genetic Data

摘要: Schistosomiasis japonica is a major parasitic disease threatening millions of people in China. Though overall prevalence was greatly reduced during the second half past century, continued persistence some areas and cases re-emergence others remain concerns. As many regions China are approaching elimination, obtaining quantitative data on Schistosoma japonicum parasites increasingly difficult. This study examines distribution schistosomiasis eastern China, taking advantage fact that single intermediate host serves as transmission bottleneck. Epidemiological, population-genetic high-resolution ecological combined to construct predictive model capable estimating probability occurs target area (“spatially explicit risk”). Results show genetic parameters correlated with endemic areas, five explanatory variables—altitude, minimum temperature, annual precipitation, distance, haplotype diversity—discriminate between non-endemic zones. Model predictions human infection rates observed at county level. Visualization indicates highest risks occur Dongting Poyang lake regions, expected, well floodplain Yangtze River. High risk interconnected, suggesting complex hydrological interplay lakes River may be important for maintaining demonstrate value modeling, particularly reducing prediction error. The findings have consequences both understanding determinants current S. infections, designing future surveillance control strategies. results also highlight how information taxa constitute bottlenecks can modeling.