Predicted impacts of climate change on New Zealand's biodiversity
作者： Carolyn J Lundquist , Doug Ramsay , Rob Bell , Andrew Swales , Suzi Kerr
DOI: 10.1071/PC110179
关键词:
摘要: In New Zealand, climate change impacts have already been observed, and will increase in future decades. Average air temperature is predicted to warm by 2.1°C 2090 for a mid-range IPCC scenario (A1B), with larger increases possible some scenarios higher rates of emissions. Sea-level rise projections range between 0.18 – 0.59 m 2100, based on six emission excluding rapid dynamical changes polar ice-sheet flow. Global surface ocean pH decrease an additional 0.14 0.35 units similar expected Zealand waters. Rainfall significantly, increased precipitation the west, reduced east, more intense rainfall events. Increasing likely result species’ shifts southward upward, mortality during extreme heat Ocean acidification cause declines carbonate communities, cold water communities decline first due lower aragonite saturation horizon impact coastal biota, reducing habitats, changing inundation patterns, increasing vulnerability storm surges tides. Changes intensity are disturbance terrestrial aquatic communities. Areas amplify disturbance, erosion sedimentation into aquatic, estuarine ecosystems, while areas low experience fire risk. being integrated management, including protection improving management habitats. Contributing global reduction greenhouse gas emissions, country include forestry their Emissions Trading Scheme, positively affecting biodiversity deforestation.
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