The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.
作者： Luigi Maiorano , Alessandra Falcucci , Niklaus E. Zimmermann , Achilleas Psomas , Julien Pottier
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摘要: The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with long history modification natural ecosystems by human activities, and one the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% all mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five outputs for two scenarios. Overall, substantial number be severely threatened change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, found important species richness owing some areas (e.g. montane region central Italy) gaining species, while most losing (mainly Spain North Africa). Existing protected (PAs) probably strongly influenced PAs Africa, Middle East those Italy southern France) experience shift composition.
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