Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks.

摘要: Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods could be used to estimate probability extinction. Traditional evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; Bayesian networks. Three innovative are also considered: influence modeling on environmental scans; elicitation scenarios as anchors; computationally intensive possible-worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria level effort required by assessors; needed implement method; ability each method model event; incorporate scientific contributory events; transparency inputs outputs; acceptability academic community (e.g., with respect intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility utility outputs policy community; difficulty communicating method's processes nonexperts; accuracy in other contexts. The concludes recommending researchers assess risks combining methods.