Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning

摘要: Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result false alarms missed floods, or surprises. This uncertainty decreases the potential reduction risk, but seldom accounted for estimates benefits FFWRSs. In present paper, method to estimate (imperfect) FFWRSs reducing presented. not only losses due response, also consider costs itself, as well associated with uncertainty. The allows estimation use either deterministic probabilistic forecasts. Through application case study, it shown using forecast have realise higher at all lead-times. However, provision increasing lead time does necessarily an rather optimal lead-time warnings are provided established function cost-loss ratio user receiving responding warning.