Societal phosphorus metabolism in future coastal environments: Insights from recent trends in Louisiana, USA

摘要: Abstract Successful adaptation to global environmental change will require confronting multiple unfolding challenges in concert. Coastal regions vulnerable sea level rise and tropical storms likely also be influenced by resource limitation an uncertain future. In this paper, we explore the interrelated dynamics of coastal population migration, economic instability, anthropogenic phosphorus (P) flows. Accounting for P flows improving human use efficiency are critical tasks given finite supply phosphate rock widespread eutrophication. We material flow analysis examine societal metabolism Upper Pontchartrain Basin Louisiana, USA two 5-y time periods (2001–2005 2006–2010) capture effects fertilizer economics growth partially driven impact Hurricane Katrina lower basin 2005. Mass balances encompass human-mediated fluxes food production consumption subsystems across agricultural, developed, forested landscapes. Drastic reductions locally purchased inorganic (78% decline between periods) were correlated increases prices. Total input study region decreased from 5452 3268 Mg P y−1 periods. Changes primarily economics, declining dairy production, influx new residents, which has been characterized decentralized settlement that limits recycling. Societal metabolic increased 22% 32% due largely reduced inputs. Leakage Estuary Mississippi River represented 17–23% total system input, while vast majority accumulated within soils, wastewater systems, landfills. discuss trends management implications. A historic opportunity exists encourage future development synergies local agriculture habitation promote energy efficient nutrient The effect would a vulnerability price spikes, along with mitigation current