Complexity and uncertainty in the assessment of the Viareggio LPG railway accident

摘要: Abstract The manuscript discusses the uncertainty and complexity intrinsic to modeling of accident occurred in Viareggio on June 29th, 2009 where a freight train loaded with LPG derailed one tank cars released 45 t that finally exploded inside some houses burnt. Thirty-one people died, thirty citizens were seriously injured damages valued at 32 M€. paper highlights influence input variables consequences determine most probable sequence events. Given set data for simulation accident, important them varied, within suitable interval, assess their terms time dense-gas cloud took reach farthest house Terminetto neighborhood (i.e. about 100 m from epicenter), pool-fire dimensions. analysis reports difficulties applying quantitative models real accidents, when events do not comply model hypotheses. Nonetheless, shows it is possible reconstruct by investigating more likely scenarios. assumption circular pool leads overestimation height. In addition, arrival does present large variations among different scenarios always too short allow implementing any mitigation actions or effective emergency plans.