Climate‐informed low‐flow frequency analysis using nonstationary modelling

摘要: Stationarity is often assumed for frequency analysis of low flows in water resources management and planning. However, many studies have shown that flow characteristics, particularly the spectrum extreme hydrologic events, were modified by climate change human activities. Thus, conventional fails to consider nonstationary characteristics may lead costly design. The presented this paper was based on more than 100 years daily data from Yichang gauging station 44 km downstream Three Gorges Dam. Mann–Kendall trend test under scaling hypothesis showed annual had a significant monotonic trend, whereas an abrupt point identified 1936 Pettitt test. climate-informed low-flow divided combined method employed account impacts related variables nonstationarities flows. Without prior knowledge probability density function station, six distribution functions including generalized values (GEV), Pearson Type III, Gumbel, Gamma, Lognormal Weibull distributions been tested find best fit, which local likelihood used estimate parameters. Analyses show GEV fit observed This study has also able exploit link between indices flows, would dynamic feature reservoir provide accurate reliable designs infrastructure supply. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.