Using system dynamics to model the transition to biofuels in the United States

摘要: Today, the U.S. consumes almost 21 million barrels of crude oil per day; approximately 60% demand is supplied by imports. The transportation sector alone accounts for two-thirds petroleum use. Biofuels, liquid fuels produced from domestically-grown biomass, have potential to displace about 30% current gasoline consumption. Transitioning a biofuels industry on this scale will require creation robust biomass-to-biofuels system-of-systems that operates in concert with existing agriculture, forestry, energy, and markets. Department Energy employing system dynamics approach investigate market penetration scenarios cellulosic ethanol, aid decision makers focusing government actions areas greatest accelerate deployment ultimately reduce nationpsilas dependence imported oil.