Statistical estimations of the number of future ozone exceedances due to climate change in Europe

摘要: [1] A statistical model to examine the potential impact of increasing future temperatures due climate change on ozone exceedances (days with daily maximum 8 h average ≥ 60 ppb) is developed for Europe. We employ gridded observed and hourly observations from nonurban stations across Europe, together 2021–2050 2071–2100 three regional models, based Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change Special Reports Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. A rotated principal components analysis applied yielding five components, which divide study domain in subregions. The historical ozone-temperature relationship examined then used provide estimates exceedance days under current emissions assumption that this will retain its main characteristics. Results suggest increases upper temperature percentiles lead statistically significant (95% significance level) both periods. greatest average depending particular range 5 12 extra days/yr 16 25 2071–2100, southeast lowest 0 2 4 are seen northwest simulations dynamical Goddard Institute Space Studies/GEOS-CHEM chemistry modeling system shows decreases instead eastern higher whereas other subregions similar results obtained.