Forecasting rehabilitation outcomes for degraded New Zealand pastoral streams

摘要: To understand the timescales and magnitude of responses that can be expected following catchment riparian rehabilitation, we forecast changes to selected stream ecosystem attributes tree planting in a pastoral catchment. All scenarios were predicted lead decreases daily maximum water temperature after 15-20 years levels would suitable for sensitive invertebrate species. Cooling reheating rapid so most benefits along mainstem accrue from shading all channel network. increase sediment yields over status quo 25-year timeframe examined, with maximal yield occurring about 15 due erosion streambanks under developing forest shade. Sediment was greatest full 25 years, although lowest this scenario longer timescales. A macroinvertebrate biotic index by 25% if whole afforestation implemented, compared 9% only 4th order planted trees. The use ecological forecasting predict likely outcomes range should prove useful prioritising rehabilitation actions.