End use analysis: issues and lessons

摘要: Methodologies for end use analysis have been developed by different researchers in the energy and water fields areas world over last 20 years. While there are core features associated with methodologies models used, differences can provide insight into ways that they might be improved, as well may required regions when used purposes. In addition to reviewing field of appliance stock models, this paper will focus on two case studies. The first is Sydney Water End Use Model, part Least Cost Planning Study. This model has project demand next years under business usual scenario, allow projection a number scenarios which include major investment efficiency effluent reuse programs regulatory options improve using appliances stalled new buildings. Key Model fact it takes account toilets Australia much larger range than (say) US, dual flush toilet was introduced (to date) three stages. also accounts projections demographic land change particularly dramatic Sydney, movement smaller occupancy rates dwellings, towards multi-family residential dwellings. The second study demonstrate linkages between modeling appliances. A research develop greenhouse abatement Australia, many modeled overlap model, including clothes washing machines, dishwashers, showerheads taps. more recent exercise revealed importance key assumptions standard techniques, highlighted need earlier starting dates modeling. The process results these studies presented, conclusions drawn about further improvements both use. linkage backcasting planning tool, pre-requisite development management program highlighted.