A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the twentieth century

摘要: The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) global coupled model is used to investigate the potential climate effects of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations changes in sulfate aerosol loadings. forcing scenario adopted closely resembles that Mitchell et al. both components. Its implementation resulting are described. Five simulations 200 years length, nominally 1900 2100, available analysis. They consist a control simulation without change forcing, three independent with same changes, single only forcing. Simulations evolution temperature precipitation from present compared observations. Temperature primary variables reasonable temporal spatial coverage observational record period. end twenty-first century, based on projected GHG discussed companion paper. For historical period dealt here, has changed relatively little century. Nevertheless, forced signal reasonably consistent observed mean instrumental record. This true also trend zonally averaged as function latitude some aspects geographical regional distributions temperature. Despite modest overall difference between GHG+aerosol GHG-only discernible response this Changes precipitation, other hand, much less evident simulated There an apparent average observations results over part land which available. Regional trends (which affected by sampling considerations), if they exist, masked large natural variability