Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change

摘要: great deal of research to inform envi-ronmental conservation and manage-ment takes a predict-and-prescribe strategy in which improving forecasts about future states ecosystems is the primary goal. But sufficiently thor-ough understanding needed reduce deep uncertainties probably not achievable, seriously limiting potential effectiveness approach. Instead, should integrate more closely with policy development identify range alternative plausible fu-tures develop strategies that are robust across these scenarios responsive un-predictable ecosystem dynamics.Calls for common [e.g., (