Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: a case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran

摘要: Urban growth models (UGM) as regional planning tools are of great interest for quantitative analysis urban complex systems. In this study, the SLEUTH UGM has been calibrated through a sequential multistage automated method to derive pattern in Rasht County from 1975 up year 2011. Evaluation model goodness fit confirms that is adjusted properly area under investigation. Four rules spontaneous, new spreading center, edge and road influenced well five coefficients diffusion, breed, spread, gravity slope resistance responsible detect aspects dynamics control years. According results, successive improvement parameters during calibration mode indicates applicability forecasting future mechanism until 2050. Accordingly, two scenarios were developed mainly with aim investigating coefficients’ role controlling nature dynamics. concern, spread value, major driving forces sprawl study reduced dictate compact infill growth, compared their original values derived historical prediction. Comparison between forecasted insignificant difference total amount area, which denotes there threshold urbanization current trend could not be maintained. Finally, we conclude considerable industrial agricultural attractions, will witness noticeable expansion 20,310 ha 2011, 34,745 2050, accounting 71 % increase manmade surfaces.