Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk using waist circumference among Aboriginals in a remote Australian community

摘要: Elevated waist circumference (WC) is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Aboriginals in Australia are at higher of CVD compared to non-Aboriginals. We examined the association between and CVD, developed a model projecting absolute using WC age one high Australian Aboriginal community. followed up 920 (470 men, 450 women) participants (more than 80% eligible population) aged 18 76 years, without baseline, 20 years. Hazard ratios were estimated Cox proportional hazards models adjusting potential confounding factors. Absolute was Weibull regression model. Of study participants, 156 males 177 females follow-up period. Incidence rates 4th quartile (Q4) 38.3 (95% CI 29.6, 49.7) 47.2 37.1, 60.3) respectively. Crude hazard Q4 group Q1 (quartile 1) as referent 2.9 1.8- 4.6) 3.5 2.2- 5.5) females. Association remained after controlling age, smoking status alcohol drinking (HR = 1.8 HR = 3.1 females). At 45 years with baseline 100 cm, male had 32.5%, while female 30.6% disease. Risk among increased increasing WC, relationship accentuated age. The prediction provides tool understanding combined effects on events It simple easily understood will assist identifying individuals relation values.