Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

摘要: There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current future species distributions. Projections based widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that are equilibrium with environment detection during surveys perfect. We multiseason correlated occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data distributional shifts Louisiana Waterthrush North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. summarized indices range size position compared them same obtained using more approaches. Detection rates point counts BBS were low, models ignored imperfect severely underestimated proportion area occupied slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static indicated distribution was most closely associated moderate temperatures, while dynamic initial diurnal temperature ranges colonization sites precipitation. Overall, latitude changed little 1997-2013 study period. Near-term forecasts generated by similar subsequently observed distributions than from models. Occupancy incorporating a finite mixture model - new extension better supported may reduce bias heterogeneity. argue replacing phenomenological mechanistic can improve projections In turn, biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, understanding biology.