Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity

摘要: With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate consequences attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either or intensification, analyse their impacts on markets biodiversity. find that both scenarios lead lower crop prices across world, even in regions where decreases. Cropland mostly affects hotspots Central South America, while threatens especially Sub-Saharan Africa, India China. Our results suggest will occur at costs predominantly developing tropical regions, Europe North America benefit from world market without putting own risk. By identifying potential future conflicts, we demonstrate conservation prioritization is needed balance with goals.