Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches

摘要: Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How one best select a small number scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing that illuminate vulnerabilities proposed policies. Another span diverse range futures. This paper joins these two approaches the first time, proposing an optimization-based method relevant combine both vulnerability and diversity. The applies real case involving climate resilient infrastructure three African river basins (Volta, Orange Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria stepwise manner helps examine how different influence choice scenarios. results suggest combining vulnerability- diversity-based provide systematic transparent scenario selection. Describes scenarios.A combination related diversity is used.The applied infrastructure.