Effects of climate uncertainties on welfare optimal investment streams into mitigation technologies

摘要: We discuss a stylised portfolio of climate change mitigation options and ask the following question: what is intertemporally optimal mix these under boundary condition guardrail uncertainty about temperature response to rising carbon dioxide concentrations? impose that requires increase global mean T be limited 2K with at least minimum probability P (e.g., P=0.75). The captured by PDF for sensitivity ocean heat uptake. For economic optimisation, we use an ensemble-version growth model MIND [1]. As key results show robust protection paths will require aggressive measures [2]. In this context it also possible potential reducing in [3] uptake [4] generically orders magnitude larger than costs induced related research programmes.