The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND

摘要: Abstract Avoiding dangerous climate change is likely to require policies mitigate CO2 emissions that are substantially more ambitious than those currently being considered. For such policies, the issue of endogenous technological becomes important, both estimate overall costs and identify intertemporally cost-effective combination mitigation options. In this paper, we first discuss recent literature evaluates potential for reduce costs, efforts incorporate into pre-existing integrated assessment models. Then formulate our own model, Model INvestment Technological Development (MIND), which allows analysis relationship between specific options protection objectives. Our model reveals two important results. First, incorporation in a portfolio can substantially. Achieving policy goals necessary avoid feasible without significant welfare losses. Second, different importance achieving goals: improving energy efficiency too costly as major option long run. run, fossil fuels have be substituted by renewable sources because backstop technology with learning-by-doing has strongest impact on reducing losses due protection. Furthermore, Carbon Capturing Sequestration allow further reduction postpone need transform system from fossil-fuel-based one renewables one.