Combining ensemble models and connectivity analyses to predict wolf expected dispersal routes through a lowland corridor.

摘要: The Italian wolf (Canis lupus italicus) population has remained isolated South of the Alps for last few thousand years. After a strong decline, species recolonized Apennines and Western Alps, while it is currently struggling to colonize Eastern Alps. Recently, was detected in lowland park connecting Northern Central If able sustain net dispersal flow, this could significantly boost connection with Dinaric-Balkan population. We investigated suitability as functional ecological corridor through unhospitable Italy. collected occurrence data two study areas. modeled distribution running separate ensemble model each area then merging output models obtain an integrated map. used map identify corridors adopting factorial least-cost path cumulative resistant kernel approach. connectivity showed that only exist areas between blind route, eastern passes continuous course. However, also revealed scarce resilience passageways Prealps, which suggests urgent management actions are necessary ensure future functionality important corridor.