Modeling and estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests

作者: Thomas R. Stanley

DOI: 10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[2048:MAEOSS]2.0.CO;2

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摘要: In studies of avian nesting success, it is often interest to estimate stage-specific daily survival probabilities nests. When data can be partitioned by stage (e.g., incubation stage, nestling stage), piecewise application the Mayfield method or Johnson's appropriate. However, when contain nests where transition from one next occurred during interval between visits, approaches are inappropriate. this paper, I present a model that allows joint estimation even time stages unknown. The lengths visits vary, and exact failure does not need known. performance at various sample sizes was investigated using Monte Carlo simulations, found performed quite well: bias small confidence-interval coverage nominal 95% rate. A SAS program for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates parameters, their standard errors, provided in Appendix.

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