A Long Neglected World Malaria Map: Plasmodium vivax Endemicity in 2010

摘要: Background: Current understanding of the spatial epidemiology and geographical distribution Plasmodium vivax is far less developed than that for P. falciparum, representing a barrier to rational strategies control elimination. Here we present first systematic effort map global endemicity this hitherto neglected parasite. Methodology Findings: We updated year 2010 our earlier estimate limits transmission. Within areas stable transmission, an assembly 9,970 geopositioned parasite rate (PvPR) surveys collected from 1985 were used with spatiotemporal Bayesian model-based geostatistical approach age-standardised 1–99 age range (PvPR1–99) within every 565 km resolution grid square. The model incorporated data on Duffy negative phenotype frequency suppress predictions, particularly in Africa. Endemicity was predicted relatively narrow throughout endemic world, point rarely exceeding 7% PvPR1–99. Americas contributed 22% area at risk but high generally sparsely populated region only 6% 2.5 billion people (PAR) globally. In Africa, negativity meant transmission constrained Madagascar parts Horn, contributing 3.5% PAR. Central Asia home 82% PAR important coinciding dense populations India Myanmar. South East contained highest Indonesia Papua New Guinea 9%