Modeling the impacts of climate change on Species of Concern (birds) in South Central U.S. based on bioclimatic variables

摘要: We used 19 bioclimatic variables, five species distribution modeling (SDM) algorithms, four general circulation models, and two climate scenarios (2050 2070) to model nine bird species. Identified as Species of Concern (SOC), we highlighted these birds: Northern/Masked Bobwhite Quail (Colinus virginianus), Scaled (Callipepla squamata), Pinyon Jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus), Juniper Titmouse (Baeolophus ridgwayi), Mexican Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii), Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), Montezuma (Cyrtonyx montezumae), White-tailed Ptarmigan (Lagopus leucurus). The Generalized Linear Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, Maxent, Multivariate Adaptive Splines, an ensemble were identify present day core bioclimatic-envelopes for the then projected future distributions suitable climatic conditions using data derived from models run according greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 8.5). Our predicted changes in all years 2050 2070. Among birds, quails found be highly susceptible change appeared most conservation concern. would lose about 62% its habitat by 67% (SDMs), Tree consistently performed fairly well based on Area Under Curve (AUC range: 0.89 0.97) values. showed improved True Skill Statistics (all TSS values > 0.85) Kappa K 0.80) relative individual SDMs.