How to assess the quality and transparency of energy scenarios: Results of a case study

摘要: Abstract The exploration and evaluation of strategies for decarbonizing the energy system is subject a series national international studies conducted by governmental, industrial independent stakeholders. These play an important role in policy debate on understanding assessing different transformation paths system, technology options their implications. They support strategic decisions type scale investments under uncertain future conditions. However, recent years increasing complexity these lead to decreasing transparency even though traceability society, politics, research, industry. In this article, three scenarios at regional scales are reviewed according compliance with our pre-defined criteria transparency. analysed detail regard objectives, methods, data used, results obtained traceability. Our comparison shows that often presented sufficiently order inform decision makers. underlying model-based methods lack information exchange between models, transparent description model couplings discussion rationality method selection strengths weaknesses applied approaches. Based findings, we present some general advice scenario developers how ensure studies.