Development of an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale

摘要: Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecast development and science communication best practice is a critical step towards integration of information into decision-making practices for enhanced community resilience to variability. Recent efforts in physical sciences have focused on forecasts, with increased emphasis tailoring this user needs at local scale. Advances progressed understandings how leverage subjective processes trust communicate risky, probabilistic information. Yet, forecasts remain underutilized decision-making, due challenging divides social lack an approach that combines expert knowledge across disciplines. We outline interdisciplinary, multi-method local-scale predictive by advancing co-produced “package” pairs highly visual bulletin public engagement sessions, both developed direct user-developer engagement, leveraging existing networks novel inclusion uncertainty through locally relevant analogies enhance understanding Systematic observations revealed some level among target audience, yet identified major confusion inhibit utility. Probabilistic predictions communicated reference “normal” years proved be unintelligible comparison individuals, given preferences certainty interpreting risk-related Our addresses key gaps literature serves as framework bridging disconnect advance benefit.