Risks a la carte: Modelling the occurrence and intensity of wolf predation on multiple livestock species

摘要: Abstract Predation on livestock is a source of human-wildlife conflicts and can undermine the conservation large carnivores. To design effective mitigation strategies, it important to understand determinants predation across species, which often differ in husbandry practices, vulnerability predators economic value. Moreover, attention should be given both occurrence intensity, because these have different spatial patterns predictors. We used risk modelling quantify factors affecting wolf five species Portugal. Within 1619 parishes encompassing entire range country, national compensation scheme recorded 17,670 events 2009–2015, each involving one or more species: sheep (31.7%), cattle (27.7%), goats (26.8%), horses (14.8%) donkeys (3.2%). Models built with 2009–2013 data validated 2014–2015 data, showed shared general pattern probability increasing its own density proximity packs. For some there were positive relations other habitat variables such as altitude, land cover by shrubland natural pastures. There was also for intensity density, while packs had no significant effects. goats, increased use communal versus private Our results suggest that although may occur wherever wolves coexist high mainly restricted particular areas where practices increase animals, this efforts concentrate.