The use of a climate-type classification for assessing climate change effects in Europe from an ensemble of nine regional climate models
作者： M. de Castro , C. Gallardo , K. Jylha , H. Tuomenvirta
DOI: 10.1007/S10584-006-9224-1
关键词:
摘要: Making use of the Koppen–Trewartha (K–T) climate classification, we have found that a set nine high-resolution regional models (RCM) are fairly capable reproducing current in Europe. The percentage grid-point to coincidences between subtypes based on control simulations and those Climate Research Unit (CRU) climatology varied 73 82%. best agreement with CRU corresponds RCM “ensemble mean”. K–T classification was then used elucidate scenarios change for 2071–2100 under SRES A2 emission scenario. land grid-points unchanged ranged from 41 49%, while shift towards warmer or drier ones 51 59%. As first approximation, one may assume regions two more subtypes, ecosystems might be at risk. Excluding northern Scandinavia, such were projected cover about 12% European area.
springer.com
harvard.edu
sci-hub.se 参考文章(23)
K. Fraedrich, F.-W. Gerstengarbe, P. C. Werner, CLIMATE SHIFTS DURING THE LAST CENTURY Climatic Change. ,vol. 50, pp. 405- 417 ,(2001) , 10.1023/A:1010699428863
Wladimir Peter Köppen, Das geographische System der Klimate Handbuch der klimatologie, Part C. pp. 1- 44 ,(1936)
Glenn Thomas Trewartha, An Introduction to Climate ,(1980)
MUYIN WANG, JAMES E. OVERLAND, Detecting Arctic climate change using Köppen climate classification Climatic Change. ,vol. 67, pp. 43- 62 ,(2004) , 10.1007/S10584-004-4786-2
U Lohmann, R Sausen, L Bengtsson, U Cubasch, J Perlwitz, E Roeckner, The Köppen climate classification as a diagnostic tool for general circulation models Climate Research. ,vol. 3, pp. 177- 193 ,(1993) , 10.3354/CR003177
David P. Rowell, A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century: seasonal means and interannual variability Climate Dynamics. ,vol. 25, pp. 837- 849 ,(2005) , 10.1007/S00382-005-0068-6
L. R. HOLDRIDGE, Determination of World Plant Formations From Simple Climatic Data. Science. ,vol. 105, pp. 367- 368 ,(1947) , 10.1126/SCIENCE.105.2727.367
Daniela Jacob, Lars Bärring, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Manuel de Castro, Michel Déqué, Filippo Giorgi, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Hirschi, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Burkhardt Rockel, Enrique Sánchez, Christoph Schär, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Samuel Somot, Aad van Ulden, Bart van den Hurk, An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate Climatic Change. ,vol. 81, pp. 31- 52 ,(2007) , 10.1007/S10584-006-9213-4
M. Déqué, D. P. Rowell, D. Lüthi, F. Giorgi, J. H. Christensen, B. Rockel, D. Jacob, E. Kjellström, M. de Castro, B. van den Hurk, An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections Climatic Change. ,vol. 81, pp. 53- 70 ,(2007) , 10.1007/S10584-006-9228-X
Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Peter Kuhry, High-resolution regional climate model validation and permafrost simulation for the East European Russian Arctic Journal of Geophysical Research. ,vol. 105, pp. 29647- 29658 ,(2000) , 10.1029/2000JD900379