Incentive contrats and strictly proper scoring rules

摘要: When a decision maker (DM) contracts with an expert to provide information, the nature of contract can, create incentives for expert, and it is up DM ensure that provides align expert’s DM’s interests. In this paper, scoring rules (and related functions) are viewed as such reinterpreted in terms agency theory revelation games from economics. Although have typically been discussed literature devices eliciting evaluating subjective probabilities, study relies on fact strictly proper reward greater expertise well honest revelation. We describe conditions under which can use rule give incentive gather amount information optimal perspective. The we consider focus cost structure, find must substantial knowledge structure order design specific correct incentives. model analysis suggest arguments hiring maintaining experts in-house rather than using outside consultants.