Consequences of selecting technology pathways on cumulative carbon dioxide emissions for the United Kingdom

摘要: Abstract The UK has an ambitious target of 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, to be reached using a series ‘carbon budgets’ aid policy development. Current energy systems modelling methods do not explore, or are unable account for, physical (thermodynamic) limits the rate change infrastructure. power generation sector variety technological options for this low-carbon transition. We compare physically constrained scenarios that accentuate either capture and storage, fastest plausible nuclear new build, build offshore wind. set these context UK’s legislated fifth budget, which comprehensive range measures with respect business-as-usual. framework our scenario comparison uses novel system dynamics model substantiate policy’s ability meet 2035 targets while maintaining financial productivity socially expected employment levels. For programme we find even if it stays on track is more expensive than wind delays reductions. This affects cumulative impacts contribute international climate targets. If cancellation occur deployment programmes storage technologies suggest electricity decarbonisation can met fast growth no