Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

摘要: The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national international attention because their current degraded threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, ecosystem adaptive management principles processes being used nationally as a decision policy framework for variety types ecological assessments. intent this study is to demonstrate application these paradigms at regional scale. effects-directed assessment approach in consists retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase determine causes conditions prospective predictive risk-based using scenario analysis evaluate future options. Embedded phases process that begins with identification goals societal preferences which develop an integrated suite relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models illustrate linkages among (societal) actions, environmental stressors, societal/ecological effects, provide basis developing testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed landscape units drivers, endpoints, formulate hypotheses explain conditions. They also structuring scenarios analyses project temporal spatial magnitude reduction system recovery. Within context recovery, initial development performance criteria those stressors determined be most important shaping landscape, guide use numerical quantitative analysis. results will discussed within provides foundation making.