Bayesian phylogeographic analyses clarify the origin of the HIV-1 subtype A variant circulating in former Soviet Union's countries.

摘要: The HIV-1 subtype A variant dominating the epidemics in former Soviet Union (FSU) countries (A(FSU)) represents one of major clades pandemic. This was reported to have begun spreading among injecting drug users (IDUs) Ukrainian city Odessa late 1994. Two competing hypotheses been proposed on ancestral origin A(FSU) variant, locating it either Democratic Republic Congo (DRC) or Guinea (RG). studies supporting these employed phylogenetic analyses identify sequences collected outside FSU ancestrally related A(FSU). different approach, based Bayesian inference and coalescent-based population genetics, has here elucidate ancestry this improve our knowledge its spread countries. were carried out using env (C2-V3-C3) p24(gag) fragments genome. inferred migration for revealed only significantly supported pathway from Africa Eastern Europe, hypothesis DRC estimating upper limit virus around 1970. support an RG negligible. results main role as epicenter epidemic, dating tMRCA 1984, ten years before explosive expansion IDUs. estimated AFSU subcluster responsible IDU outbreak also located Odessa, with 1993. Statistically routes other cities Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Belarus by phylogeographic analysis. These shed new light variant.