Assessing biological realism of wildlife population estimates in data‐poor systems

摘要: Summary Large carnivore management is often contentious, particularly in jurisdictions where hunting and conservation efforts collide. Regulated a common tool, yet relevant decisions are commonly taken the absence of reliable population data driven by factors other than biological considerations. We used European large (brown bear Ursus arctos, wolf Canis lupus Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx) to evaluate plausibility reported estimates decisions. We Romania as test case this region not only data-poor, but public private game managers beneficiaries revenue from activities. assessed following: (i) how growth rates calculated abundances between 2005 2012 compared published empirically derived North American populations; (ii) whether unrealism compounded through time testing fell within bounds biologically plausible trajectories; (iii) relationship occurrence unrealistic financial incentives (amount hunting). For U. which generates high revenue, estimated annual were frequently greater maximum (up 1·5 for versus 1·136 literature). Reported simulated populations 32% cases, difference was positively correlated with (rs = 0·576). Population C. overshot rate (1·35) less frequently, (91% cases), there weak correlation (rs = 0·182). L. lower minimum (60% (rs = 0·164). Synthesis applications. Our study suggests that comparing agencies demographic obtained rigorous peer-reviewed studies useful approach evaluating wildlife data-poor systems, especially when might be influenced non-scientific incentives.