Flexible transition strategies towards future well-to-wheel chains: an evolutionary modelling approach

摘要: Well to wheel (WTW) analyses mainly focus on alternative road fuel/vehicle systems that are very different from the current crude oil based individual transport system. A large share of WTW chains evaluated require changes in energy source, new fuel production facilities, distribution and also modifications vehicles. An immediate transition such a system would be an unprecedented technological discontinuity. Historical examples successful characterized by stepwise transitions subsystems. In this paper, we present model identifies likely sequences analogy fitness landscape evolutionary biology. Applying methodology allows for dynamic interpretation otherwise static information. We show path dependent, so decisions predetermine future We, therefore, argue flexible initial steps allow paths later favorable. Results suggest improvements vehicle technologies most if decision makers decreasing requirements. full diesel, as first step, is advisable greenhouse gases should reduced.