Checking the price tag on catastrophe: The social cost of carbon under non-linear climate response

摘要: Research into the social cost of carbon emissions — marginal damage from a tonne emitted has tended to focus on “best guess” scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore potential for low-probability, highdamage events, which are critically important determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses FUND integrated assessment model investigate influence three types high-impact responses carbon: collapse Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation; large scale dissociation oceanic methane hydrates; and sensitivities above levels. We find that incorporating these events can increase by factor over 3.