Daily quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the analogue method: Improvements and application to a French large river basin

摘要: This paper presents some improvements of a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting method based on analogues, formerly developed small basins located in South-Eastern France. The scope is extended to large scale mainly influenced by frontal systems, considering case study area related the Saone river, basin eastern For given target situation, this consists searching for most similar situations observed historical meteorological archive. Precipitation amounts during analogous are then collected derive an empirical predictive distribution function, i.e. estimation amount expected day. former version (Bontron, 2004) has been improved introducing two innovative variables: temperature, that allows taking seasonal effects into account and vertical velocity, which enables better characterization atmospheric motion. new algorithm first applied perfect prognosis context (target come from reanalysis) operational weather forecasts) three years period. Results show approach yields useful forecasts, with lower false alarm rate performances present day D D+2.