Lack of regeneration and climatic vulnerability to fire of Scots pine may induce vegetation shifts at the southern edge of its distribution

摘要: Aim  Forest ecosystems dominated by fire-sensitive species could suffer shifts in composition under altered crown fire regimes mediated climate change. The aims of this study were to: (1) the spatio-temporal patterns and climatic distribution fires Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests during last 31 years north-eastern Spain, (2) evaluate vulnerability to these (3) analyse regeneration after fire, (4) predict mid-term maintenance or replacement burned areas. Location  Catalonia (north-eastern Spain): southern limit pine. Methods  We characterized that occurred between 1979 2009. used a generalized linear model characterize whole Spain. assessed nine areas Catalonia. resulting data integrated into stochastic matrix areas. Results  During three decades, distributed dry sites most affected fire. Our assessment Spain as whole, based on topographical variables, showed 32% are vulnerable proportion increase 66% conservative change scenario. Field almost no fires, limited capacity recolonize from unburned edges, even relatively old with 90% recruits located first 25 m edge. This process be delayed elapsed time for new achieve reproductive maturity, which we estimated c. 15 years. Finally, our predicted oak (Quercus sp.) forests, shrublands mixed resprouter forests. Main conclusions  Increased future, warmer conditions may result vegetation at edge species.