Three electricity futures: Monitoring the emergence of alternative system architectures
作者： Kristina Hojčková , Björn Sandén , Helene Ahlborg
DOI: 10.1016/J.FUTURES.2017.12.004
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摘要: Abstract The electricity system is in transition, but whereto? To large-scale global or regional grids to self-sufficient disconnected prosumers? Although numerous studies have previously dealt with the future of system, there a lack that attempt monitor development more complete sets socio-technical elements support alternative futures. This paper addresses this gap by first identifying and characterizing three idealized futures: ‘the Super-grid’, Smart-grid’ Off-grid’, then using characterization emergence, accumulation alignment indicating initial formation new systems. Besides tracing ongoing structural build-up at niche level, we explore how emerging systems relate existing regime, other sectors discourses. While final outcome undecided, findings indicate all investigated gained momentum over last decade, partly relying on growth trends shared such as rise renewables climate change concerns, also building different technologies, actor networks, related industries political cultural
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