Life history analysis for black bears (Ursus americanus) in a changing demographic landscape

摘要: We used matrix population models to evaluate the relative importance of different vital rates growth (λ) for female black bears on Southeastern Coastal Plain (SCP) United States, and determine whether reductions in subadult adult survival due ongoing habitat fragmentation human disturbance will cause shifts rates. Additionally, we evaluated how well predictions made by Heppell et al. [Ecology 81 (2000) 654] concerning elasticity patterns mammals apply over realistic variation rates, much correlations between influence their effects λ. generated 500 model replicates based upon combinations rate values each nine scenarios, where scenarios represented reduction level correlation among Elasticity analysis indicated that survival, litter size three- four-year-old females are most important λ 99.3 0.7% all replicates, respectively; few with higher occurred some type rates; these, 21 (70.0%) 20% survival. Results from analysis, indicating strong consistent effect also supported results regression analysis. In regressions showed accounted majority Our suggest should be primary target conservation management strategies. Ongoing impacts reduce frequency conditions which populations SCP stable or increasing. Without strategies reverse this trend, local extinctions become more likely, recovery at-risk difficult achieve.