Winners and losers of national and global efforts to reconcile agricultural intensification and biodiversity conservation.

摘要: Closing yield gaps within existing croplands, and thereby avoiding further habitat conversions, is a prominently controversially discussed strategy to meet the rising demand for agricultural products, while minimizing biodiversity impacts. The intensification associated with such poses additional threats landscapes. uneven spatial distribution of both provides opportunities reconciling conservation through spatially optimized intensification. Here, we integrate information almost 20,000 vertebrate species land-cover land-use datasets. We estimate that projected between 2000 2040 would reduce global value lands by 11%, relative 2000. Contrasting these projections optimization scenarios reveals 88% loss could be avoided globally coordinated planning, implying huge efficiency gains international cooperation. However, global-scale also implies highly costs benefits, resulting in distinct "winners losers" terms national economic development, food security, sovereignty or conservation. Given conflicting interests lacking effective governance mechanisms guarantee equitable compensation losers, multinational seems politically unlikely. In turn, 61% nationally focused optimization, 33% just 10 countries. Targeted efforts improve capacity integrated planning sustainable especially countries, including strengthening institutions can arbitrate subnational conflicts, may offer an effective, yet feasible, avenue better reconcile future trade-offs agriculture remained robust when assuming yields only increased 80% their potential. Our results highlight need real-world governance, political challenges into development change mitigation research.