The future of the red metal—scenario analysis
作者： Amit Kapur
DOI: 10.1016/J.FUTURES.2005.02.011
关键词:
摘要: Abstract A regional copper scenario model has been developed from the perspective of generic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for greenhouse gas emissions scenarios four world regions: OECD90, ASIA, REF, and ALM. set three scenarios: Tech World, Green Trend each representing significant driving forces influencing population economic growth, technological change environmental consciousness, is presented. Intensities use converge in long-term World as GDP per capita level approaches $100,000. Global use, currently 15 Tg Cu/yr, expected to rise 30–130 Tg Cu/yr by year 2100. The rate ASIA ALM regions exceeds OECD90 REF beyond 2020. corresponds global 4 kg Cu/(capita-yr) compared contemporary 2.6 10 kg Cu/(capita-yr) regions, symbolizing sustainability theme. For region, results are more sensitive intensity variable whereas variations can influence use.
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