Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

摘要: Abstract The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there comparatively little research examining minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment global resources historic mine production. Scenarios from major deposit types countries or regions were developed using Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These extended cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived our resource database, to produce estimates potential rates ore grade decline. indicate that are sufficient identified grow at least next twenty years. future rate decline may be less than historically case, as grades approaching average is still significant endowment in high bodies. Despite increasing demand developing world experiences economic growth, environmental impacts associated with increased declining (particularly those relating energy consumption, water consumption greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers continued expansion industry. For these reasons peak well realised during this century.