Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran

摘要: Land use changes in suitable areas, habitat loss, and fragmentation are likely to be the most important consequences of climate change for wildlife populations. Yet, little is known about response large carnivores change, globally regionally. In this study, we utilized ensemble modeling based on six species distribution models order predict spatial vulnerability endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) Chaharmahal Bakhtiari Province, a semi-arid region Iran. We showed that 12.12 22.38% habitats area may lost by 2050 due under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) within framework two general circulation (GCMs). contrast, 1.87 13.01% currently unsuitable can become with change. Overall, considerable portion range will remain intact global warming, but still loss vary from 5.89 14.59%. Thus, large-scale locally focused flexible conservation strategies should applied sensitive areas so prevent intensification anthropogenic threats such as overgrazing forest degradation collection firewood, charcoal, medicinal plants changing climate.